GUINEA-BISSAU, WHAT FUTURE? Maika Lobo

Just a curiosity, 566, 473 voters validly voted in the first round, a number greater than the resident population of Cape Verde.

In advance, and contrary to the only fearless, tough Cape Verdean (politician) who decided to enter someone else's campaign body and soul, I have no sympathy for the competing candidates or those who made it to the second round.

I'm not Guinean, I just follow events and results.

We have the main results of the first round:

Domingos Simões Pereira obtained 222,860 votes, corresponding to 40.13%; Umaro Sissoco Embaló obtained 153,530 votes, corresponding to 27.65%; Nuno Gomes Nabiam obtained 73,063 votes, corresponding to 13.16%; José Mário Vaz obtained 68,933 votes, corresponding to 12.14%; Carlos Gomes Junior obtained 14,766 votes, corresponding to 2.66%.

This table of results deserves a careful look from us, a rigorous and objective analysis.

We started with the electoral pre-agreement, in which the candidates signed among themselves before the first round, but to be in force in the second round. Umaro Sissoco, Nuno Nabiam, José Mário Vaz and Carlos Gomes Junior are the signatories of the agreement.

The referred agreement stated that, in case one of them passed to the second round, the others would support that candidate.

In this case, and if the agreement is fulfilled, all support from those who did not make it to the second round will be directed to Umaro Sissoco Embaló.

This coalition, which is based on the dissident Paigc parties, against the candidate Domingos Simões Pereira could be deadly and decisive for his defeat.

I don't believe in automatic transfers of votes, but if the coalition is maintained, we can safely predict, in this framework, that Domingos Simões Pereira, supported by Paigc, came to life.

Confirming this scenario, he loses Simões, Paigc and the politicians who supported this candidacy.

In the end, what counts are the results of the polls.